The hottest economic data for the first half of th

2022-10-21
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Economic data for the first half of the year will be released today. GDP growth or slowdown will be released today. Introduction: today, the National Bureau of statistics will announce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2011. In addition to the closely watched GDP growth data in the second quarter, other economic data, including household income and fixed asset investment, will also be released. Previously, the market generally predicted that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter would continue to slow down, maintaining at about 9.5%

today, the National Bureau of statistics will announce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2011. In addition to the closely watched GDP growth data in the second quarter, other economic data, including household income and fixed asset investment, will also be released. Previously, the market generally predicted that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter would continue to slow down, maintaining at about 9.5%

it is noteworthy that on the 7th of this month, the Bureau of statistics decided to advance the release time of monthly and quarterly statistical data by days from July this year in order to avoid data leakage in advance. Therefore, the press conference on the operation of China's national economy in the first half of the year, which was originally scheduled to be held on July 15, was held in advance to July 13, and the relevant data were released in the form of draft at the official station of the National Bureau of statistics before the press conference in the second quarter

compared with the prediction that CPI broke "6" in June, there is no doubt that the prediction of GDP data in the second quarter can only be accurate to one decimal place to see differences. Moreover, in predicting the trend of GDP in the second half of the year and the trend of GDP in the whole year, the opinions of major institutions and experts are also different, showing two completely opposite views

whether the CPI increase of 6.4% in June reached the top or not leads to debate

according to the previous regulations of the Bureau of statistics on the release of statistical data in advance, the resident consumption index (CPI) in June was officially released on July 9. The data showed that the CPI in June rose by 6.4% year-on-year, and the food price rose by 14.4%. Among them, the contribution of pork price to CPI was as high as 21.4%

after vegetables, pork has become another "early bird" leading to the rise of residents' consumption level, and experts have given different views on the future trend of food prices. Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomic researcher at the development research center of the State Council, believes that the "breaking six" is more a lagging reaction of the tail raising factors of continuous price increases accumulated in the first half of this year since the second half of last year. The tail raising factors have reached their peak. In particular, he pointed out that many new price rising factors are converging under the role of state regulation

at the same time, Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher of the decision-making and consulting department of the National Academy of administration, also stressed in an interview with China news finance and economics channel that the CPI has reached the peak of the year by breaking the "six", which does not mean that China has entered the era of high inflation. The relationship between food factors leading to CPI inflation and currency is weak. Due to the promotion of active monetary policy in previous years, the amount of money has surged or even been abused, but it will not lead to long-term inflation. This CPI rise is mainly caused by the phased rise in pork prices

although most institutions and experts said that CPI has reached the peak of the year and the prediction that it will fall back in the second half of the year is almost a consensus, some people still questioned this. Lu Zhengwei (Weibo) of Industrial Bank believes that inflation peaked in June, and the CPI of most months since July 2010 is higher than the level of normal months. From the month on month observation, there is still no sign of CPI decline

"China's monetary policy is playing its role, and the trend of inflation is slowing down." Caoyuanzheng, chief economist of BOC International, believes that although China's CPI rose to a three-year high in June, the core inflation rate, that is, the inflation index excluding core agricultural products and energy, is declining month on month, and monetary policy is effective in curbing inflation

GDP growth or decline in the second quarter, and the quality of housing has become a major event for builders to "slow down"

according to the first quarter national economic operation released by the Bureau of statistics in March this year, in the first quarter of 2011, about 30% of the world's frozen soil was acid soil, and the gross domestic product (GDP) reached 9631.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year. At the same time, according to the purchasing managers' index (PMI) data of China's manufacturing industry officially released recently, it has fallen for three consecutive months. The market generally predicts that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the second quarter will be weaker than 9.7% in the first quarter

"China's GDP will certainly not decline in the next year." He fan, deputy director of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said recently that judging from the situation of the whole year, this year's GDP will never be too low, it must be more than 9.5% and may even reach 10%. He stressed that the downward trend of GDP does not mean that China's economy has begun to decline, but that China's economy has been at a relatively normal level through macro-control

Lu Zhengwei, research director of Industrial Bank, also said that among the factors affecting the trend of GDP in the second quarter, consumption and exports are expected to continue to fall, except that urban fixed investment may dominate under the support of affordable housing, rural water conservancy construction and projects that have been started in the previous two years. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the second quarter is about 9.5%

in contrast, some experts and scholars do not agree with the prediction that GDP can continue to fall in the second quarter. Wang Xiaoguang said that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter of this year may be higher than the 9.7% in China in the first quarter, which is no exception, and is expected to be between 10% and 10.2%. He pointed out that there are two main reasons: first, the trade surplus in the second quarter of this year made a positive contribution to the trend of GDP, while the trade deficit in the first quarter, so the contribution of exports to GDP growth in the second quarter must be stronger than that in the first quarter; Second, monthly investment is accelerated, which will also promote GDP growth

coincidentally, Huatai United Securities also expects GDP to grow by 9.8% year-on-year in the second quarter. The brokerage believes that the slowdown in demand expansion was not obvious in the second quarter, the promotion of fixed asset investment to economic growth was strengthened, and the contribution of trade surplus to economic growth was increased. Under the effect of a low base, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter will be slightly higher than that in the first quarter

in addition, as for the question of whether China's economic growth will slow down, Wang Xiaoguang said that the slowdown of China's economic growth is conducive to the transformation of the economic model, the control of inflation and the resolution of related problems such as the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, which is conducive to the rational development of China's economy. He believes that maintaining China's economic growth at around 8% is the most appropriate choice and a sign of healthy economic development, rather than the so-called "hard landing" after reducing the factors that stimulate economic growth

but from the perspective of actual operation, the slowdown of China's economic growth is not as easy as expected. He fan, deputy director of the Institute of world economy and politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, expressed his concern about government investment. He believes that government investment plays a very important role in the trend of GDP. First of all, this year is the opening year of the 12th Five Year Plan, and many new strategic industries have started this year. Another is affordable housing. This year, the target is to start construction of 10million new units, but only 30% of them will start construction by May. It is estimated that most of them will be in the second half of this year, so the government's investment will continue to be strong in the second half of this year

therefore, he fan predicts that China's GDP will definitely not decline in the coming years. If GDP does not fall, it will bring another problem, that is, price control and inflation, which explains why the primary task mentioned in the government work report is still inflation

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