The hottest economic data in July came out, and th

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July economic data came out, the real estate market cooled significantly

July economic data came out, the real estate market cooled significantly

August 16, 2019

the National Bureau of statistics released the national economic operation data in July, and some data fell compared with the previous month. Experts: continue the overall stable situation

July economic data came out, the real estate market cooled significantly

on August 14, the National Bureau of statistics released the national economic operation data in July, Some data fell to a certain extent compared with last month. Among them, in January this year, the national real estate development investment was 7284.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in January

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, analyzed that the latest data showed that under the principle of not using real estate as a tool to stimulate the economy in the short term, the fever in the real estate market was significantly reduced. Both investment data and sales data, under the influence of tightening regulation, the market has slowed down again, and from the perspective of trend, it is expected to continue in August

in addition, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods and national fixed asset investment also declined. However, experts said that the decline was within expectations and was not sustainable, so we should not pay too much attention to the fluctuation of single month data. On the whole, the national economy continued to operate within a reasonable range in July, continuing the overall stable development trend

highlights 1 real estate

intensive regulation and control, and a number of indicators of real estate have fallen

the Beijing News has combed the data in recent months and found that many indicators such as real estate development investment, commercial housing sales area and funds in place of real estate development enterprises have decreased continuously or the growth rate has fallen. Among them, the growth rate of real estate development investment has fallen for three consecutive months in August. According to the data, in August, the national real estate development investment increased by 11.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.7 percentage points compared with the month. In June, the growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points compared with that in January. In September, this figure fell by 0.3 percentage points

in addition, since this year, the sales area of commercial housing has decreased for six consecutive months. Among them, the year-on-year decline in the sales area of commercial housing in month, month and month was 1.6%, 1.8% and 1.3% respectively, while it increased by 1.3% for the whole year of 2018

Zhang Dawei analyzed that the reasons for the year-on-year decline mainly include the intensive release of continuously tightened regulatory policies, the rise of housing prices in some regions, and the reduction of cost-effective housing sources. In this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, said that the continuous decline in the sales area of commercial housing indicates that the market has cooled down. However, he also pointed out that there may be two reasons to see that the decline has not expanded. The first is that the expectation of tightening credit policies often makes some home buyers speed up the purchase and signing in the near future. 3. The second is the expectation of some real estate enterprises for future regulation, which tends to accelerate the promotion and sales in the off-season in July

since this year, the real estate market has been intensively regulated. According to the statistics of Centaline real estate research center, the number of national real estate regulation policies in a single month in July was 56. In 2019, the national real estate regulation policy reached 307 times. Recently, Hainan, Suzhou, Shanghai and other places have issued measures related to real estate regulation. On the evening of July 24, Suzhou issued new regulations to increase the real estate sales and purchase restriction policy. This time, the "purchase restriction" and "sale restriction" were upgraded, and the strictness of the regulation policy was unprecedented. According to the regulations, the year of payment of social security or individual income tax required by non registered residence registered permanent residence families to buy a house in Suzhou was increased from one year to two years; In terms of the sales restriction policy, the scope was further expanded from Suzhou Industrial Park to Suzhou city

this is the fourth time that Suzhou has increased its real estate regulation in the past three months. In May alone, Suzhou introduced three major regulation policies. It is noted that behind the regulation is the continuous rise of housing prices in the city since this year. According to the data of lianjiaguan, in June this year, the average listing price and reference price of houses in Suzhou were 28211 yuan/m2 and 26985 yuan/m2 respectively, up 12.87% and 4% respectively over the end of last year. The average price of second-hand houses in hot spots, namely industrial parks, has exceeded 40000 yuan/m2

financing has cooled, and the growth rate of funds in place of real estate enterprises has declined

it is noteworthy that the growth rate of funds in place of real estate development enterprises has also fallen in the past three months. In June, the funds in place of real estate development enterprises increased by 7.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with the month. The previous monthly and monthly growth rates fell by 1.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points respectively

in fact, in the past three months, many departments have made intensive noise and pointed to real estate. Among them, on May 17, the CBRC reiterated its strict regulation of real estate financing in its No. 23 document. Nearly two months later, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document requiring real estate enterprises to issue external debt only to replace medium - and long-term overseas debt due in the next year. On July 30, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee once again stressed that "real estate is not fried" after April, and made it clear for the first time that real estate is not used as a short-term means to stimulate the economy

therefore, recently, not only real estate enterprises have tightened financing, but also personal housing loans have continued to tighten financing, which is specifically reflected in the rise of housing loan interest rates, the maintenance of high levels, or the slowdown in the pace of lending. According to the monitoring data of rong360 big data research institute, the average interest rate of the national first home loan in July 2019 was 5.44%, equivalent to 1.110 times the benchmark interest rate; The average interest rate of the second home loan is 5.76%

from the data, the national housing loan interest rate entered a rebound stage in the second half of the year. Among the first tier cities, the housing loan interest rates in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell month on month, while those in Beijing and Guangzhou remained unchanged from the previous month; In the second tier cities, most cities have raised the mortgage interest rates one after another. Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Dalian and Changsha have recently raised the mortgage interest rates several times, and some banks are in a tight line, and even suspend accepting the mortgage business

in the first ten days of August, the Beijing News learned through consulting the business departments of many banks to adjust the speed of 5 to 50 mm/min or personal loan staff that in the first half of this year, the benchmark interest rate of the first home loan in Hangzhou was generally increased by 5% to 8%. At present, many banks have adjusted the mortgage interest rate to 8% or 10% above the benchmark interest rate, and even some banks have adjusted to 15% above the benchmark interest rate. At present, the mortgage interest rates of many banks in Suzhou, a hot city, are still floating above the benchmark interest rate by more than 22%

highlight 2 consumption

the decline in automobile sales caused a drop in consumption growth

in July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.6% year-on-year in nominal terms, down 2.2 percentage points. Liuaihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, said that the main reason for the decline in consumption growth was the change in car sales. In June, the national fifth and sixth emission standards were changed, and the automobile manufacturers took promotional activities, which boosted the automobile sales of the month. In June, the automobile sales increased by 17.2% year-on-year. Car sales fell by 2.6% in July due to consumption moving forward or certain overdraft effect. Overall, consumption has maintained a relatively rapid growth

data show that catering revenue and retail sales have maintained steady and rapid growth, and the growth rate of retail sales of consumer upgrading goods continues to accelerate. Liu Aihua said that there is no doubt about the potential of consumption in China, and the rapid growth of residents' income also plays a supporting role in overall consumption. From the perspective of consumption environment, new models such as sinking market and community e-commerce are gradually emerging, consumption facilities are increasingly improved, and the consumption environment is constantly improved. From the perspective of supply, the package of measures immediately launched to support the platform economy will promote the development of the platform economy, including "interconnection + service" and "interconnection + production", and will give sufficient support to consumption from the aspects of industry and supply. Therefore, consumption has the foundation and conditions to maintain a steady and rapid growth trend

panxiangdong, chief economist of new era securities, said that the significant improvement in auto retail in June was not sustainable, so the growth rate of auto consumption fell back as scheduled in July, resulting in large fluctuations in consumption in June and July. It is expected that the consumption in the future will be stable in the short term, which is related to the fact that the overall economic data has not shown a significant upward trend and the growth rate of residents' income has declined

Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, predicted that after the short-term disturbance factors subsided and the low base effect of the previous year gradually appeared, the drag effect of auto sales on social zero in August would be reduced. In addition, the current consumption of necessities maintained a steady momentum, and it is expected that the growth rate of social zero in August is expected to rebound to more than 8.0%

highlights 3 investment

the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry accelerated in three consecutive months

in January, the growth rate of national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) fell by 0.1 percentage points compared with the month. In terms of industries, the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 3.3%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in January, slightly accelerating for three consecutive months. Pan Xiangdong said that the general trend of manufacturing investment growth in the second half of the year is downward, but there may be fluctuations in the band. The loss of production capacity and the weakening of environmental protection have led to the decline in the profit growth rate of upstream enterprises and the fall in external demand, which will be reflected in the future manufacturing investment data. However, from the leading indicators such as the growth rate of the output value of construction and installation projects in the construction industry, the growth rate of the value of completed factory buildings and warehouses in the construction industry, and the growth rate of export delivery value, the growth rate of manufacturing investment may rebound slightly in the third quarter

in addition, infrastructure investment increased by 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Pan Xiangdong believed that although local special bonds were released in large quantities in July, credit and non-standard were weak. At the same time, many places in July were affected by factors such as high temperature and rainstorm, which may also have a certain impact on infrastructure. Material certification: the promotion of ROHS certification, UL yellow card certification, CQC certification and new infrastructure is conducive to promoting infrastructure investment, but this round of policies is relatively restrained compared with the past. While implementing the active fiscal policy, the hard constraints of strictly controlling the implicit debt of local governments, Resolutely Curbing the increase of implicit debt, and resolutely not taking the road of disorderly borrowing for construction are still in place. Risk prevention is the bottom line, and non-standard financing still restricts infrastructure investment

Wang Qing mentioned that the new regulations on special bonds were issued on June 10, allowing special bond funds to be used as the capital of some major projects, and encouraging financial institutions to provide supporting financing, which will play a significant role in the acceleration of infrastructure construction in the later stage, and the pull level is expected to be about 3.5 percentage points. However, there will be a time lag for the implementation of policies to take effect, which also means that there is still a certain rebound space for infrastructure growth in the later stage

from the perspective of structural data, investment in high-tech industries increased rapidly. In addition, the investment in some short board areas is strengthening, with the investment in ecological protection and environmental governance increasing by 41% and the investment in education increasing by 18.5%, both maintaining a high-speed growth

Wang Qing said that it is expected that the probability of infrastructure investment speeding up in the future is high, which will offset the impact of sluggish investment in the manufacturing industry, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment will rebound slightly in August. However, he also pointed out that combined with various factors, the downward pressure on the economy may appear. It is expected that the counter cyclical adjustment of macro policies will be strengthened

read the economic data in July

commodity sales continued to expand

in July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3307.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year nominal increase of 7.6%, down 2.2 percentage points

investment grew steadily

in the month, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 34.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the month

the employment situation is generally stable

in January, 8.67 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, 79% of the annual plan. In July, the national urban unemployment rate was 5.3%

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