After the resonant rebound of sina futures, steel

2022-08-01
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Sina Futures: after the resonance rebound of futures and cash, steel mines are concerned about whether there will be a

Market Review and summary: in the last week of November, market sentiment continued to remain optimistic, spot prices were strong, futures prices were supported, and rebar futures and cash prices resonated higher; From the perspective of monthly trend, the middle of November is the time port for the steel plant to limit production in the heating season. The market at the end of the policy is obvious, and the current price of the month also rises synchronously. Affected by low spot inventory and high basis difference between futures and cash, contracts in recent months have increased significantly, and the price difference between recent months and far months has widened, up to 260. The logic of steel plant resumption of production began to have a certain impact on the disk. The high specific price of Luokuang and Luojiao fell. With the passage of time and the change of the rhythm of phased production restriction, the logic of resumption of production is expected to dominate the disk in the future, but the road of price difference repair will not be smooth. As of the 30th day of the month (1805 contract), there was a strong and weak relationship among various varieties. Coking coal coke (2090, -42.00, -1.97%) iron ore screw thread steel thermal coal coil. The macro monthly economic data shows that under the influence of production restriction, the pattern of supply and demand is weak. However, with the cold weather in the north, the release of demand during the shutdown and rush period of conventional demand is slowing down, and the pressure on the demand side is becoming stronger in the future. However, in December, due to the internal and external macro uncertainties, the US tax reform was implemented and the path of interest rate increase was deduced

inventory: the social inventory of steel (3795, -28.00, -0.73%) in that month showed a continuous decline structure, with a large cumulative decline, and the social inventory fell to the low point of the year. This year, under the policy disturbance, the pace of inventory accumulation was delayed compared with previous years, and the absolute inventory was at a relatively low historical level. On November 15, the production restriction in the heating season kicked off. The "26+2" cities stopped production restriction one after another. The high operating rate of steel mills in Hebei fell, and the impact on the reduction of steel supply gradually appeared. At the same time, the policy disturbance this year was uncertain. Especially before the heating season, many construction sites were rushing to work, the rhythm of spot demand was affected, and the accumulation of inventory was later than that in previous years, which was one of the reasons why the inventory rhythm this year was slightly different from that in previous years. However, it can be predicted that with the cold weather in the north, the terminal demand will be affected more, and the simultaneous drop in demand may hinder the decline of single inventory. At present, the price difference between the north and the south is gradually expanding, and the rhythm of "North material moving south" and the delivery volume in the Northeast are both higher than in previous years. From the current inventory level, the impact of inventory on the medium - and long-term trend is not obvious. The shortage of spot specifications in some regions has not been alleviated, but it is necessary to pay close attention to whether there will be an inflection point in inventory in December

basis: the current price difference of rebar in November remained high, and the spot led the futures to run. As of the 30th, the spot price difference between rb1801 and Shanghai deformed steel bar had slightly expanded to about 700; The spot price difference between rb1805 and Shanghai deformed steel bar has greatly expanded to around 1000. In the weekly strategy, we continue to track the strategy of buying rebar near and selling rebar far. At present, we have gained more than 200 yuan, and the current price difference is around 260. It is recommended to set a profit stop line to hold. Disk virtual profit: in terms of the rise and fall of varieties, the rebound range of furnace charge in the current month is larger than that of finished products, but the disk profit has not converged substantially, because there is a certain difference between the profit calculation method and the trend of absolute price difference. In the future, with the enhancement of the expectation of resumption of production, the current record high virtual profit is expected to be repaired. However, from the perspective of time cycle, it will not be so fast. In particular, the disk virtual profit of 1801 contract may remain at a high level until delivery. As of the 30th, the corresponding disk profit of 1801 contract closed at 1468; The corresponding disk profit of 1805 contract closed at 1148. The 1801 contract is still in the production limit period, and the space and time period for high profits on the disk to be repaired are limited. However, for the long-term contracts that follow the rise, due to the start of the recovery logic and the expected impact of the redistribution of industrial profits in the future, we can pay attention to the locking of the virtual profit strategy, and we recommend the layout of the 1805 contract. In the short term, there is still a certain deviation between the industry and the macro, and the market chooses to follow the industrial logic of the right direction. However, after the resonance rebound of the current period, we need to pay attention to whether the demand peak will appear. First, the inventory, second, the macro fundamentals, and third, the rhythm of production restriction in the heating season; In the short-term, multiple single profit stop lines will continue to be held, and the high price may still be repeated under the policy disturbance. For reference only

2. Iron ore

in November, the black series rose in resonance, among which the screw thread and coking coal 05 contracts broke through the previous high and were very strong; The iron ore rebounded rapidly after it stopped falling near USD 58 in the early stage and near USD 420 on the disk. At present, the Platts index is back above USD 70, and the disk is also back near USD 550,. From the perspective of willingness, it mainly lies in the fact that the market is optimistic about the long-term expectation under the support of costs, and the market confidence has been effectively boosted by the sharp rise in steel prices

in terms of fundamentals, the iron ore port inventory continues to accumulate. According to Mysteel statistics in the latest week, the iron ore inventory of 45 ports across the country was 14136, an increase of 151 compared with last Friday and 2912 compared with the same period last year. The daily average total amount of port dredging was 261.75, and ports in some regions were severely pressed. In terms of blast furnace, environmental protection and production restriction have entered the formal implementation stage, and the blast furnace operating rate has decreased significantly compared with the previous period. The national blast furnace operating rate is only 63.12%. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity was 71.96%, 0.4% lower than that of last week. The utilization rate excluding obsolete capacity was 78.09%, 9.71% lower than that of the same period last year. The profit margin of steel plant was 85.28%. Therefore, in the later stage, the port inventory will still rise further in the case of limited blast furnace start-up

looking back at the market in November, there are several points to be noted: first, in November, there was an obvious pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products. The rise of coking coal and coke 05 contract reached 30%, the slight rise of iron ore reached 15%, the rise of screw thread was close to 10%, and the rise of hot coil was only 5.2%. On Friday night, iron ore led the rise again, close to the previous high. It means that the market speculation logic has changed from the logic of limiting production in the early stage to the logic of resuming production in the future, and the raw material end has risen sharply. Second, the spot price of screw thread rose sharply last week, while the main disk contracts showed insufficient follow-up, disc "At the beginning, the original intention of making copper alloy functional new materials was to maintain a large discount, which was even greater than the heat transfer month in June. In the short term, there is a phased convergence demand for the basis. Compared with the sharp rise in the spot price of steel, the rise in the price of iron ore ports is limited, especially for low-grade mines. Even for the minerals such as jinbuba, which are not of low grade, they have only risen by about 30 recently. Therefore, what we recommend in the early stage is on the long-term contract The strategy of shorting the ratio of steel to ore requires periodic profit stop or appropriate position reduction

in December, as for the ore, its fundamental loose pattern remains unchanged, and the structural problems and the spot situation of the port need to be tracked in time. However, the peripheral environment deserves more attention. First, whether the sharp rise in the spot price of screw thread is suspected of overdraft and how the basis will converge; Second, the completion of the US tax reform and the impact of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on the market in the middle of the year. As far as the market is concerned, the short-term risks of iron ore should be paid attention to after a substantial increase. Although it is a long-term cycle, it still maintains a strong judgment

in terms of operation, in December, the trend of iron ore stones was strong first and then weak. In the early stage of unilateral operation, more than one single rolling profit stop holding was set, and attention was paid to the impact of peripheral markets and risk control; In terms of arbitrage, the short spiro ore ratio recommended in the early stage is troubled by the high basis difference of the thread, so we can choose to stop the profit or reduce the position in stages, waiting for a new entry point. For reference only

market review

summary: in November, the social inventory of steel maintained a downward trend, and under the background of the upcoming seasonal off-season, the inventory fell by a large margin. The feedback showed that the supply and demand were in a tight balance, the market sentiment was relatively optimistic, the spot price was strong, and the futures price also resonated higher. The charge end also rebounded to the bottom, and the overall trend of ferrous metal in November was stronger than expected. In the current month (1805 contract), the relationship between the strength of various varieties, coking coal, coke iron ore, screw thread steel, power coal hot coil

industry data

the social inventory of rebar continued to decline

1. In November, the national social inventory of steel continued to decline. While the supply declined due to production restrictions, some construction sites in some areas rushed to work and the inventory was in a hurry

2. The rebar inventory in major cities across the country was 3160500 tons. Compared with last week (2017kasat was excited about new products -), the rebar inventory in the country this week decreased by 188600 tons, a decrease of 5.97%, somewhat narrower than last week; Compared with the same period of last year (), it decreased by 919900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.54%, which was significantly larger than that of last week

the basis difference of rebar continued to rise

1. In November, the screw thread futures now rose resonantly. However, in the past two weeks, the increase in the spot price has increased by more than 100 yuan for several consecutive days, resulting in another staged major deviation from the futures now

2. In terms of spot goods, as of December 1, spot goods in Shanghai reported 4810, up 870 month on month,; In terms of futures, it closed at 3977, up 414 over the same period last month

3. The basis spread rapidly again. As of December 1, the disc discount in Shanghai reached 991

the price difference of billet futures fluctuated widely

1. In November, the production was limited by environmental protection, and the rise of billet was limited. However, due to the rapid digestion of finished stock at the futures end, the rise was sharp, and the price difference between futures and billet was repaired. As of the first day, the price difference between them was 87

2. The profit of spot end billet adjustment and rolling was significantly restored. As of the 1st day, the spot price in Shanghai was 920 higher than that of billet, an increase of 640 over the same period last month

high level operation of "virtual steel plant" on the panel

1. In November, the black system rose in resonance as a whole. As for the panel, the trend of the raw material end in the second half of the section was stronger, and the panel profit was high and volatile

2. As of the closing on the 24th, the main contract disk profit was about 1107. (the data do not represent a specific steel plant, only refer to its change trend.)

blast furnace operating rate

1. In November, the production restriction of heating season entered the formal implementation stage. The national blast furnace operating rate dropped significantly to 63.12, and the operating rate in early November was 70.99

2. The latest effective way to reduce the structural acceleration response caused by earthquake, reduce the interlayer shear force and the corresponding shear deformation cycle. Mysteel surveyed 163

steel plants. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 71.96%, down 0.4% compared with last week. The utilization rate excluding obsolete capacity was 78.09%, down 9.71% compared with the same period last year. The profitability of steel plants was 85.28%

3. The production restriction was strengthened again this week. Some blast furnaces in Hebei and East China were still affected. However, some blast furnaces will resume production after maintenance next week. It is expected that the start-up rate will rise slightly

the steel plant has a good operating environment

statistics on the number of "North material going south" in 2017

according to Mysteel statistics, the actual total amount of Northeast China going south in November 2017 was about 1047000 tons, and the planned total amount in December was about 1288000 tons, an increase of 23.02% month on month. The total amount of going south accounted for about 65.47% of Northeast China's planned output in December

the iron ore port inventory returned to the upward trend

1. Mysteel statistics showed that the iron ore inventory of 45 ports nationwide was 14136, Compared with the data of last Friday, it increased by 151, 2912 compared with the same period last year, and the daily average total amount of port dredging was 261.75. (unit: 10000 tons)

2. In terms of sub regions, some main ports in North China have been affected by the prohibition of automobile transportation, resulting in a decrease in port dredging volume and an obvious increase in inventory; Some ports along the river have been closed due to strong winds, and the time for unsealing has not been determined for the time being; The port dredging in South China is generally stable, and the pressure on the port has increased. The port pressure this week was 6.69 million tons, a significant increase over 4.52 million tons last week

high level operation of taste premium

1 in January and November, the Platts' index first declined and then rose. In the second half of the period, it rebounded sharply. The taste premium was differentiated. The 62 taste index had the strongest rise

2. As of November 30, 62%-58% of the taste premium was reported at $28.3, up $1.75 from the beginning of the month; 65%-62% of the taste premium was reported at $16.75, down $2.30 from the beginning of the month

3. Port spot

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